Simon Willison’s Weblog

My Thoughts on the Future of “AI”. Nicholas Carlini, previously deeply skeptical about the utility of LLMs, discusses at length his thoughts on where the technology might go.

He presents compelling, detailed arguments for both ends of the spectrum - his key message is that it's best to maintain very wide error bars for what might happen next:

I wouldn't be surprised if, in three to five years, language models are capable of performing most (all?) cognitive economically-useful tasks beyond the level of human experts. And I also wouldn't be surprised if, in five years, the best models we have are better than the ones we have today, but only in “normal” ways where costs continue to decrease considerably and capabilities continue to get better but there's no fundamental paradigm shift that upends the world order. To deny the potential for either of these possibilities seems to me to be a mistake.

If LLMs do hit a wall, it's not at all clear what that wall might be:

I still believe there is something fundamental that will get in the way of our ability to build LLMs that grow exponentially in capability. But I will freely admit to you now that I have no earthly idea what that limitation will be. I have no evidence that this line exists, other than to make some form of vague argument that when you try and scale something across many orders of magnitude, you'll probably run into problems you didn't see coming.

There's lots of great stuff in here. I particularly liked this explanation of how you get R1:

You take DeepSeek v3, and ask it to solve a bunch of hard problems, and when it gets the answers right, you train it to do more of that and less of whatever it did when it got the answers wrong. The idea here is actually really simple, and it works surprisingly well.

# 4:55 am / generative-ai, deepseek, nicholas-carlini, ai, llms

OpenAI platform: o1-pro. OpenAI have a new most-expensive model: o1-pro can now be accessed through their API at a hefty $150/million tokens for input and $600/million tokens for output. That's 10x the price of their o1 and o1-preview models and a full 1,000x times more expensive than their cheapest model, gpt-4o-mini!

Aside from that it has mostly the same features as o1: a 200,000 token context window, 100,000 max output tokens, Sep 30 2023 knowledge cut-off date and it supports function calling, structured outputs and image inputs.

o1-pro doesn't support streaming, and most significantly for developers is the first OpenAI model to only be available via their new Responses API. This means tools that are built against their Chat Completions API (like my own LLM) have to do a whole lot more work to support the new model - my issue for that is here.

Since LLM doesn't support this new model yet I had to make do with curl:

curl https://api.openai.com/v1/responses \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $(llm keys get openai)" \
  -d '{
    "model": "o1-pro",
    "input": "Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle"
  }'

Here's the full JSON I got back - 81 input tokens and 1552 output tokens for a total cost of 94.335 cents.

I took a risk and added "reasoning": {"effort": "high"} to see if I could get a better pelican with more reasoning:

curl https://api.openai.com/v1/responses \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $(llm keys get openai)" \
  -d '{
    "model": "o1-pro",
    "input": "Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle",
    "reasoning": {"effort": "high"}
  }'

Surprisingly that used less output tokens - 1459 compared to 1552 earlier (cost: 88.755 cents) - producing this JSON which rendered as a slightly better pelican:

It was cheaper because while it spent 960 reasoning tokens as opposed to 704 for the previous pelican it omitted the explanatory text around the SVG, saving on total output.

# 11:54 pm / o1, llm, openai, inference-scaling, ai, llms, llm-release, generative-ai, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, llm-pricing