Wednesday, 6th August 2025
No, AI is not Making Engineers 10x as Productive (via) Colton Voege on "curing your AI 10x engineer imposter syndrome".
There's a lot of rhetoric out there suggesting that if you can't 10x your productivity through tricks like running a dozen Claude Code instances at once you're falling behind. Colton's piece here is a pretty thoughtful exploration of why that likely isn't true. I found myself agreeing with quite a lot of this article.
I'm a pretty huge proponent for AI-assisted development, but I've never found those 10x claims convincing. I've estimated that LLMs make me 2-5x more productive on the parts of my job which involve typing code into a computer, which is itself a small portion of that I do as a software engineer.
That's not too far from this article's assumptions. From the article:
I wouldn't be surprised to learn AI helps many engineers do certain tasks 20-50% faster, but the nature of software bottlenecks mean this doesn't translate to a 20% productivity increase and certainly not a 10x increase.
I think that's an under-estimation - I suspect engineers that really know how to use this stuff effectively will get more than a 0.2x increase - but I do think all of the other stuff involved in building software makes the 10x thing unrealistic in most cases.
gpt-oss-120b is the most intelligent American open weights model, comes behind DeepSeek R1 and Qwen3 235B in intelligence but offers efficiency benefits [...]
We’re seeing the 120B beat o3-mini but come in behind o4-mini and o3. The 120B is the most intelligent model that can be run on a single H100 and the 20B is the most intelligent model that can be run on a consumer GPU. [...]
While the larger gpt-oss-120b does not come in above DeepSeek R1 0528’s score of 59 or Qwen3 235B 2507s score of 64, it is notable that it is significantly smaller in both total and active parameters than both of those models.
— Artificial Analysis, see also their updated leaderboard
Tom MacWright: Observable Notebooks 2.0. Observable announced Observable Notebooks 2.0 last week - the latest take on their JavaScript notebook technology, this time with an open file format and a brand new macOS desktop app.
Tom MacWright worked at Observable during their first iteration and here provides thoughtful commentary from an insider-to-outsider perspective on how their platform has evolved over time.
I particularly appreciated this aside on the downsides of evolving your own not-quite-standard language syntax:
Notebook Kit and Desktop support vanilla JavaScript, which is excellent and cool. The Observable changes to JavaScript were always tricky and meant that we struggled to use off-the-shelf parsers, and users couldn't use standard JavaScript tooling like eslint. This is stuff like the
viewofoperator which meant that Observable was not JavaScript. [...] Sidenote: I now work on Val Town, which is also a platform based on writing JavaScript, and when I joined it also had a tweaked version of JavaScript. We used the@character to let you 'mention' other vals and implicitly import them. This was, like it was in Observable, not worth it and we switched to standard syntax: don't mess with language standards folks!
Jules, our asynchronous coding agent, is now available for everyone (via) I wrote about the Jules beta back in May. Google's version of the OpenAI Codex PR-submitting hosted coding tool graduated from beta today.
I'm mainly linking to this now because I like the new term they are using in this blog entry: Asynchronous coding agent. I like it so much I gave it a tag.
I continue to avoid the term "agent" as infuriatingly vague, but I can grudgingly accept it when accompanied by a prefix that clarifies the type of agent we are talking about. "Asynchronous coding agent" feels just about obvious enough to me to be useful.
... I just ran a Google search for "asynchronous coding agent" -jules and came up with a few more notable examples of this name being used elsewhere:
- Introducing Open SWE: An Open-Source Asynchronous Coding Agent is an announcement from LangChain just this morning of their take on this pattern. They provide a hosted version (bring your own API keys) or you can run it yourself with their MIT licensed code.
- The press release for GitHub's own version of this GitHub Introduces Coding Agent For GitHub Copilot states that "GitHub Copilot now includes an asynchronous coding agent".