3 posts tagged “jevons-paradox”
2025
Jevons paradox is coming to knowledge work. By making it far cheaper to take on any type of task that we can possibly imagine, we’re ultimately going to be doing far more. The vast majority of AI tokens in the future will be used on things we don't even do today as workers: they will be used on the software projects that wouldn't have been started, the contracts that wouldn't have been reviewed, the medical research that wouldn't have been discovered, and the marketing campaign that wouldn't have been launched otherwise.
— Aaron Levie, Jevons Paradox for Knowledge Work
Since Jevons' original observation about coal-fired steam engines is a bit hard to relate to, my favourite modernized example for people who aren't software nerds is display technology.
Old CRT screens were horribly inefficient - they were large, clunky and absolutely guzzled power. Modern LCDs and OLEDs are slim, flat and use much less power, so that seems great ... except we're now using powered screens in a lot of contexts that would be unthinkable in the CRT era.
If I visit the local fast food joint, there's a row of large LCD monitors, most of which simply display static price lists and pictures of food. 20 years ago, those would have been paper posters or cardboard signage. The large ads in the urban scenery now are huge RGB LED displays (with whirring cooling fans); just 5 years ago they were large posters behind plexiglass. Bus stops have very large LCDs that display a route map and timetable which only changes twice a year - just two years ago, they were paper.
Our displays are much more power-efficient than they've ever been, but at the same time we're using much more power on displays than ever.
— datarama, lobste.rs coment for "LLMs are cheap"
2024
Jevons paradox (via) I've been thinking recently about how the demand for professional software engineers might be affected by the fact that LLMs are getting so good at producing working code, when prompted in the right way.
One possibility is that the price for writing code will fall, in a way that massively increases the demand for custom solutions - resulting in a greater demand for software engineers since the increased value they can provide makes it much easier to justify the expense of hiring them in the first place.
TIL about the related idea of the Jevons paradox, currently explained by Wikipedia like so:
[...] when technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the falling cost of use induces increases in demand enough that resource use is increased, rather than reduced.